Financial Projections
DCF model and financial forecasts
Overview
This section presents NuBatt's financial projections for the period 2027-2031, based on the Company's discounted cash flow (DCF) model. These projections are conservative and reflect the Company's multi-revenue stream business model.
Important Notice: The financial projections contained herein are forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions. Actual results may differ materially. Prospective investors should carefully review the Risk Factors section of this Memorandum.
Revenue Projections
Summary Revenue Forecast
Revenue CAGR (2027-2031): ~170%
| Year | Revenue | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $50M | — |
| 2028 | $201M | 301% |
| 2029 | $661M | 229% |
| 2030 | $1.41B | 113% |
| 2031 | $2.85B | 102% |
Revenue by Stream
| Stream | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear Batteries | $5M | $50M | $250M | $500M | $1.2B |
| Medical Isotopes | $30M | $50M | $101M | $351M | $600M |
| Industrial Isotopes | $10M | $61M | $121M | $200M | $350M |
| Nuclear Waste Recycling | — | — | $140M | $291M | $545M |
| SiC Wafers | $3M | $25M | $30M | $40M | $81M |
| Technology Licensing | $2M | $15M | $20M | $30M | $71M |
| Total | $50M | $201M | $661M | $1.41B | $2.85B |
Revenue Mix Evolution
| Stream | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Nuclear Batteries | 10% |
| Medical Isotopes | 60% |
| Industrial Isotopes | 20% |
| Nuclear Waste Recycling | 0% |
| SiC Wafers | 6% |
| Technology Licensing | 4% |
Profitability Projections
EBITDA Forecast
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | EBITDA Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $50M | $12M | 23.9% |
| 2028 | $201M | $85M | 42.1% |
| 2029 | $661M | $300M | 45.4% |
| 2030 | $1.41B | $621M | 44.0% |
| 2031 | $2.85B | $1.23B | 43.3% |
Gross Margin Trajectory
| Year | Gross Margin | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~40% | Pilot production, lower volumes |
| 2028 | ~45% | Production scaling begins |
| 2029 | ~50% | Manufacturing efficiencies |
| 2030 | ~52% | Volume economics |
| 2031 | ~55% | Optimised operations |
Path to Profitability
Investment (2026): Capital deployment, facility build-out
Revenue Ramp (2027): First revenues, positive EBITDA
Scale (2028-2029): Rapid revenue growth, margin expansion
Maturity (2030-2031): Optimised operations, significant profitability
Cost Structure
Operating Expense Breakdown
| Category | 2027 | 2031 (Target) | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of Goods Sold | ~60% | ~45% | Scale economics improve |
| R&D | ~15% | ~8% | Ongoing product development |
| Sales & Marketing | ~10% | ~8% | Customer acquisition |
| G&A | ~15% | ~7% | Administrative leverage |
Key Cost Drivers
| Cost Category | Description | Management Approach |
|---|---|---|
| Isotope Sourcing | Raw materials for batteries and isotope sales | Multiple suppliers, waste recycling |
| SiC Materials | Semiconductor materials | Internal production capability |
| Facility Operations | Manufacturing, hot cells, cleanrooms | Scale efficiencies |
| Personnel | Engineering, operations, commercial | Selective hiring, productivity focus |
| Regulatory | Licensing, compliance, safety | Invest in expertise |
Personnel Costs
| Year | Headcount | Total Payroll (incl. benefits) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026/Y1 | 16 | $4.2M |
| 2027/Y2 | 37 | $8.6M |
| 2028/Y3 | 71 | $17.8M |
| 2029/Y4 | 114 | $30.4M |
| 2030/Y5 | 172 | $51.3M |
| 2031/Y6 | 261 | $86.4M |
Capital Expenditure
CapEx Summary
| Period | Amount | Primary Use |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $66M | Facility construction, core equipment, hot cells |
| Year 2 | $15.6M | Expansion equipment, production scale-up |
| Year 3+ | Variable | Capacity expansion as needed |
CapEx Allocation (Year 1)
Manufacturing Facility (~50%)
~$33M
Production Equipment (~25%)
~$16.5M
Hot Cells & Shielding (~15%)
~$10M
Cleanroom & Labs (~10%)
~$6.5M
Facility Requirements
| Capability | Purpose |
|---|---|
| Cleanroom | Semiconductor and electronics manufacturing |
| Hot Cells | Isotope handling and battery integration |
| Testing Labs | Quality assurance and validation |
| Shielded Storage | Isotope inventory management |
| Office/Admin | Team workspace |
Working Capital
Working Capital Components
| Component | Considerations |
|---|---|
| Inventory | Isotope inventory, semiconductor materials, finished goods |
| Accounts Receivable | Defence payment cycles (60-90 days), commercial terms |
| Accounts Payable | Supplier payment terms |
| Cash Reserves | Operating buffer, contingency |
Working Capital Assumptions
| Metric | Assumption |
|---|---|
| Days Sales Outstanding | 60-90 days (defence), 30-45 days (commercial) |
| Days Inventory | 90-120 days (isotope lead times) |
| Days Payable | 45-60 days |
| Cash Buffer | 3-6 months operating expenses |
Valuation Framework
DCF Model Parameters
| Parameter | Value | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| WACC | 12% | Risk-adjusted for early-stage nuclear technology |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 3% | Long-term GDP-aligned growth |
| Tax Rate | 25% | Singapore corporate tax considerations |
| Projection Period | 5 years | 2027-2031 |
Valuation Implications
Post-Money Valuation: ~$516M with 30% equity offered for $119M investment
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Pre-Money Valuation | ~$397M |
| Investment Amount | $119M |
| Post-Money Valuation | ~$516M |
| Equity Offered | 30% |
Exit Opportunities
IPO
Target 2030 at $10B+ valuation at scale
Strategic Acquisition
Opportunistic — Defence, aerospace, energy majors
Secondary Sale
Ongoing liquidity for early investors
Key Assumptions
Sensitivity Analysis
Revenue Sensitivity
| Scenario | 2029 Revenue | 2031 Revenue | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | $661M | $2.85B | Plan assumptions |
| Conservative (-20%) | $529M | $2.28B | Slower market adoption |
| Optimistic (+20%) | $793M | $3.42B | Faster contract wins |
EBITDA Sensitivity
| Scenario | 2029 EBITDA | 2031 EBITDA | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | $248M | $1.23B | 43.3% |
| Conservative | $180M | $900M | 39% |
| Optimistic | $320M | $1.5B | 44% |
Key Sensitivities
| Factor | Impact of +/-10% Change |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth Rate | High impact on valuation |
| Gross Margin | Moderate impact on EBITDA |
| CapEx Requirements | Moderate impact on cash flow |
| Working Capital Intensity | Lower impact |
Royalty Obligation
NDB License Royalty
| Aspect | Terms |
|---|---|
| Rate | 2% of after-tax profit |
| Applicability | Products using licensed NDB patents |
| NuBatt-Owned IP | No royalty on products using only NuBatt patents |
| Calculation | Applied to net profit after corporate tax |
Royalty Impact Estimate
| Year | Est. After-Tax Profit | Royalty (2%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$9M | ~$180K |
| 2028 | ~$49M | ~$1M |
| 2029 | ~$186M | ~$3.7M |
| 2030 | ~$461M | ~$9.2M |
| 2031 | ~$920M | ~$18.4M |
Note: Royalty applies only to products incorporating licensed NDB technology. Products using only NuBatt-owned patents are royalty-free.
Cash Flow Profile
Cash Flow Summary
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Negative | ($66M) | Negative |
| 2027 | ~$5M | ($15.6M) | Negative |
| 2028 | ~$40M | ~($10M) | ~$30M |
| 2029 | ~$180M | ~($20M) | ~$160M |
| 2030 | ~$450M | ~($30M) | ~$420M |
| 2031 | ~$900M | ~($40M) | ~$860M |
Cash Position
The $119M raise provides capital for:
Facility & Equipment
~$66M (Year 1)
Working Capital
~$20M
Operations
~$25M
Contingency
~$8M
Financial Milestones
First Revenue: 2027
Positive EBITDA: 2027
$100M Revenue: 2028
$500M Revenue: 2029
$1B Revenue: 2030
IPO Readiness: 2030
Summary
NuBatt's financial projections demonstrate strong growth from $50M (2027) to $2.8B (2031) with EBITDA margins expanding from 23.9% to 43.3%.
| Metric | 2027 | 2031 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $50M | $2.8B |
| EBITDA | $12M | $1.23B |
| EBITDA Margin | 23.9% | 43.3% |
| Revenue CAGR | — | ~170% |
Key characteristics:
- Diversified Revenue: Six streams reduce single-market risk
- Improving Margins: Scale economics drive margin expansion
- Capital Efficiency: High CapEx early, then cash generative
- Conservative Assumptions: Projections based on achievable milestones
- Clear Exit Path: IPO target 2030 at $10B+ valuation
[End of Financial Projections]