Patent Valuation Analysis
Comparable analysis and IP portfolio valuation
NuBatt Patent Portfolio Valuation Analysis
Executive Summary
This document provides an independent analysis of NuBatt's intellectual property portfolio valuation based on comparable company transactions, market multiples, and standard patent valuation methodologies. The analysis suggests a patent portfolio value range of $15M - $45M based on current development stage, with potential value of $80M - $150M upon successful commercialization.
| Valuation Approach | Estimated Range | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Cost Approach | $8M - $15M | Medium |
| Market Approach (Comparables) | $20M - $45M | Medium |
| Income Approach (DCF) | $50M - $150M | Low (speculative) |
| Weighted Estimate | $25M - $60M | Medium |
1. NuBatt IP Portfolio Overview
1.1 Patent Holdings Summary
| Category | Count | Status | Geographic Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Owned Patents | 6 | Singapore applications (pending) | Singapore, PCT potential |
| Licensed Patents | 3 US patents | USPTO | US |
| Total Patent Families | 9 | Mixed | Global potential |
1.2 Owned Patents Detail
| Application No. | Technology | TRL | Strategic Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10202500575S | Liquid Transducer Nuclear Voltaic | 4-5 | Core - Primary product |
| 10202500576V | Gaseous Xenon Nuclear Voltaic | 3 | High - Alternative platform |
| 10202500577W | Noble Gas Nuclear Voltaic | 3 | Medium - Extension |
| 10202500578Y | Liquid Xenon Nuclear Voltaic | 3 | High - Alternative platform |
| 10202500617Q | Nuclear Voltaic System | 3-4 | Core - System architecture |
| 11202403397U | Nuclear Voltaic Power Source | 3-4 | High - Power configurations |
1.3 Licensed Patents (from NDB Inc.)
| US Patent Number | Technology | Status | License Terms |
|---|---|---|---|
| US12394534B2 | Nuclear Voltaic Power Source | Granted | Perpetual, irrevocable, 2% royalty |
| US20230335345A1 | Carbon Nano-Onion Electrode | Pending | Perpetual, irrevocable, 2% royalty |
| US20230257270A1 | Carbon Nano-Onion Synthesis | Pending | Perpetual, irrevocable, 2% royalty |
2. Comparable Companies Analysis
2.1 Nuclear Battery Sector Comparables
| Company | Country | Technology | Funding/Valuation | Patents | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDB Inc. | USA | Diamond betavoltaic | ~$1.65M raised (Reg A, 2021) at $4.35/share | 3 PCT families | Pre-revenue |
| City Labs | USA | Tritium betavoltaic | Undisclosed Series A (2010) + $1.6M+ govt contracts | Multiple (only US commercial license) | Commercial (low volume) |
| Betavolt | China | Ni-63 betavoltaic | Undisclosed (state-backed) | Filing PCT globally | Mass production (2024) |
| Arkenlight | UK | C-14 diamond | Undisclosed | Filing | Prototype (2024) |
Key Observations:
-
NDB Inc. (NuBatt's Licensor)
- Raised $1.65M at ~$30M implied valuation (Reg A offering)
- 107 employees, pre-revenue
- NuBatt's license provides access to foundational IP at 2% royalty
- Implication: Licensed IP worth ~$5-10M to NuBatt given perpetual terms
-
City Labs
- Only commercial betavoltaic license holder in USA
- Revenue-generating but low volume (microwatt devices)
- Recent NIH and USAF contracts totaling $1.6M+
- Implication: Regulatory/commercial license adds significant value
-
Betavolt
- First mass-produced nuclear battery (2024)
- State-backed, undisclosed valuation
- Demonstrates commercial viability of technology class
- Implication: Market validation supports higher valuations
2.2 Medical Isotope Sector Comparables
| Transaction | Year | Value | Revenue | Multiple | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novartis → AAA (Lutathera) | 2018 | $3.9B | €109M | 36x revenue | Radiopharmaceutical with Lu-177 |
| Novartis → Endocyte | 2018 | $2.1B | Pre-revenue | — | Radiopharmaceutical platform |
| Siemens → AAA Diagnostics | 2024 | $224M | — | — | Radioactive diagnostic chemicals |
| NorthStar Medical | Ongoing | $16.1M+ (govt funding) | Pre-revenue | — | Mo-99 production |
Key Observations:
- Novartis paid 36x revenue for AAA, demonstrating premium valuations for radiopharmaceutical IP
- Pre-revenue radiopharmaceutical platforms command $2B+ valuations with strong clinical pipelines
- Medical isotope production attracts significant government funding ($16M+ for NorthStar)
- NuBatt's isotope production capability could capture similar value multiples
2.3 SiC Semiconductor Comparables
| Event | Year | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Infineon → Wolfspeed (attempted) | 2016 | $850M | Power electronics division (terminated for security) |
| Wolfspeed government funding | 2024 | $750M | DOE direct funding for SiC manufacturing |
| SiC patent filings | 2023 | 70%+ from China | Indicates strategic importance |
Key Observations:
- SiC technology commands premium valuations given supply constraints
- Government support ($750M to Wolfspeed) demonstrates strategic importance
- NuBatt's vertical integration (SiC production for internal use + sales) adds optionality value
3. Patent Valuation Methodologies
3.1 Cost Approach
Estimates the cost to recreate the IP portfolio from scratch.
| Cost Component | Estimate | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| R&D to develop technology | $3-5M | Based on NDB's total funding, typical deep tech R&D |
| Patent prosecution costs | $500K-1M | 9 families × ~$100K average per family |
| DSO validation study | $500K-1M | Government feasibility study |
| Know-how development | $2-4M | Engineering expertise, trade secrets |
| Opportunity cost (time) | $2-4M | 3-5 years development time |
| Total Cost Approach | $8M - $15M |
3.2 Market Approach
Based on comparable transactions and market multiples.
3.2.1 Patent Transaction Multiples
| Metric | Range | Application to NuBatt |
|---|---|---|
| Early-stage patent family value | $1-5M per family | 9 families × $2M = $18M |
| Deep tech seed premium | 1.5-2.5x | $18M × 2x = $36M |
| DSO validation premium | 1.2-1.5x | $36M × 1.3 = $47M |
3.2.2 Comparable Company Multiples
| Comparable | Implied Value | Adjustment | NuBatt Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDB Inc. (~$30M valuation) | $30M | +50% (more patents, DSO validation) | $45M |
| City Labs (commercial license) | $20-40M est. | -25% (no commercial license yet) | $15-30M |
| Pre-revenue deep tech median | $14.8M (seed) | +100% (multiple platforms, validation) | $30M |
Market Approach Range: $20M - $45M
3.3 Income Approach (DCF-Based)
Projects future cash flows attributable to the patent portfolio.
3.3.1 Licensing Revenue Potential
| Scenario | Annual Licensing Revenue | NPV (10 years, 15% discount) |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $2-5M by Year 5 | $15-25M |
| Base Case | $10-20M by Year 5 | $50-80M |
| Optimistic | $30-50M by Year 5 | $120-180M |
3.3.2 Royalty Rate Analysis
Industry standard royalty rates for comparable technologies:
| Technology | Typical Royalty | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor patents | 1-3% of sales | Industry norm |
| Medical device patents | 3-7% of sales | Higher due to regulatory barriers |
| Nuclear/energy patents | 2-5% of sales | Specialized technology |
| NuBatt blended estimate | 3-5% of sales | Multi-market application |
3.3.3 Income Approach Calculation
Using NuBatt's projected revenues and attributing value to patents:
| Year | Projected Revenue | Patent Attribution (30%) | Royalty Value (4%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $50M | $15M | $600K |
| 2028 | $200M | $60M | $2.4M |
| 2029 | $650M | $195M | $7.8M |
| 2030 | $1.5B | $450M | $18M |
| 2031 | $2.8B | $840M | $33.6M |
NPV of Patent Cash Flows (15% discount rate): $50M - $150M
Note: This assumes projections are achieved, which carries significant uncertainty.
4. Technology Readiness Assessment
4.1 TRL-Based Valuation Framework
| TRL Level | Description | Typical Valuation Multiple | NuBatt Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| TRL 1-2 | Basic principles | 0.5-1x base | NuBatt-Q1 |
| TRL 3 | Proof of concept | 1-2x base | NuBatt-P1, NuBatt-S1 |
| TRL 4-5 | Lab validation | 2-4x base | NuBatt-L1 (DSO validated) |
| TRL 6-7 | Prototype demo | 4-8x base | Target |
| TRL 8-9 | Commercial ready | 8-15x base | Future |
4.2 NuBatt TRL Portfolio Valuation
| Product | TRL | Base Value | Multiple | Adjusted Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NuBatt-L1 | 4-5 | $5M | 3x | $15M |
| NuBatt-S1 | 3-4 | $3M | 1.5x | $4.5M |
| NuBatt-P1 | 3 | $3M | 1.2x | $3.6M |
| NuBatt-Q1 | 2-3 | $2M | 0.8x | $1.6M |
| Licensed IP | — | $5M | 1.5x | $7.5M |
| Total | $32.2M |
5. Comparable Patent Portfolio Analysis
5.1 Nuclear Battery Patent Landscape
| Entity | Est. Patent Count | Key Technologies | Est. Portfolio Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NASA/DOE (RTG) | 50+ | RTG, MMRTG | Government-held |
| City Labs | 10-20 | Tritium betavoltaic | $15-30M (est.) |
| NDB Inc. | 5-10 | Diamond betavoltaic | $10-20M (est.) |
| Betavolt | 10+ (filing) | Ni-63 betavoltaic | Unknown (state-backed) |
| NuBatt | 9 families | Multi-platform voltaic | $25-60M (this analysis) |
5.2 Differentiation Factors
| Factor | NuBatt Position | Value Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Multi-platform technology | 4 distinct platforms | +20-30% premium |
| Multi-isotope flexibility | Am-241, Cm-244, Ni-63, etc. | +15-25% premium |
| DSO government validation | Completed feasibility study | +25-40% premium |
| Liquid transducer innovation | Unique self-healing technology | +30-50% premium |
| Licensed IP perpetuity | Irrevocable, perpetual license | +20-30% vs. time-limited |
| Early stage (not granted) | Singapore applications pending | -20-40% discount |
6. Risk Adjustments
6.1 Patent-Specific Risks
| Risk Factor | Impact | Adjustment |
|---|---|---|
| Patents not yet granted | High | -25% |
| Limited geographic coverage | Medium | -15% |
| Technology obsolescence risk | Low | -5% |
| Infringement/validity challenges | Medium | -10% |
| Dependency on licensed IP | Medium | -10% |
| Total Risk Adjustment | -40% to -65% |
6.2 Value Enhancement Factors
| Enhancement Factor | Impact | Adjustment |
|---|---|---|
| DSO validation | High | +30% |
| Multiple technology platforms | High | +25% |
| Perpetual license terms | Medium | +15% |
| Growing market demand | High | +20% |
| Defence sector entry point | High | +20% |
| Total Enhancement | +80% to +110% |
7. Final Valuation Summary
7.1 Valuation Range by Methodology
| Methodology | Low | Mid | High | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost Approach | $8M | $12M | $15M | 20% |
| Market Approach | $20M | $32M | $45M | 50% |
| Income Approach | $50M | $100M | $150M | 30% |
7.2 Weighted Average Valuation
| Scenario | Calculation | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | (8×0.2) + (20×0.5) + (50×0.3) | $26.6M |
| Base Case | (12×0.2) + (32×0.5) + (100×0.3) | $48.4M |
| Optimistic | (15×0.2) + (45×0.5) + (150×0.3) | $70.5M |
7.3 Recommended Patent Portfolio Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Conservative Estimate | $25M |
| Base Case Estimate | $45M - $50M |
| Optimistic Estimate | $70M |
| Recommended Range | $25M - $70M |
8. Valuation in Context of Company Valuation
8.1 Patent Value as Percentage of Pre-Money Valuation
| Metric | Amount | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-Money Valuation (PPM) | $397M | 100% |
| Patent Portfolio (Base Case) | $45-50M | 11-13% |
| Patent Portfolio (Range) | $25-70M | 6-18% |
8.2 Implied Attribution Analysis
The PPM's $397M pre-money valuation implies the following value attribution:
| Value Component | Est. Attribution | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| IP/Patents | 10-15% | $40-60M |
| Technology/Know-How | 15-20% | $60-80M |
| Market Opportunity | 30-40% | $120-160M |
| Team/Execution | 10-15% | $40-60M |
| DSO Validation/Contracts | 15-20% | $60-80M |
| Future Revenue Potential | 10-15% | $40-60M |
8.3 Conclusion on PPM Valuation Support
| Assessment | Finding |
|---|---|
| Patent portfolio alone | Supports $25-70M of $397M (6-18%) |
| IP + Technology + Validation | Supports $100-200M (25-50%) |
| Full value requires | Successful commercialization and revenue generation |
9. Recommendations
9.1 To Strengthen Patent Portfolio Value
- Pursue patent grants - Convert Singapore applications to granted patents
- File PCT applications - Expand geographic coverage to US, EU, China, Japan
- Build patent thicket - File continuation and divisional applications
- Document trade secrets - Formalize know-how protection
- Seek additional validation - Government contracts, pilot customers
9.2 For Investors
- Patent portfolio provides foundation but represents only 10-15% of claimed valuation
- Value heavily dependent on successful technology commercialization
- DSO validation is significant de-risking factor
- Licensed IP terms are favorable (perpetual, irrevocable, sublicensable)
- Comparable transactions in radiopharmaceuticals support premium multiples if technology succeeds
10. Sources and References
Market Research
- Fortune Business Insights - Betavoltaic Device Market
- Mordor Intelligence - Nuclear Battery Market
- Research and Markets - SiC Patent Landscape 2024
Company Information
Comparable Transactions
Valuation Methodology
- Pre-Revenue Valuation in Deep Tech - The Scenarioist
- Patent Valuation Techniques - PatentPC
- Valuing Deeptech Startups - Glen Coyne
Technology Background
- Wikipedia - Betavoltaic Device
- Wikipedia - Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator
- Green Car Congress - Betavolt
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a valuation opinion, or an appraisal. Patent valuations are inherently uncertain and depend on numerous factors including market conditions, technology development, regulatory approvals, and competitive dynamics. Actual values may differ materially from the estimates presented. Prospective investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
Document prepared: January 2026 Based on publicly available information as of the analysis date